OUR TOP 5 BANKING PREDICTIONS
1. The US will see M&A activity mint at least one new top 20 US bank by total assets.
2. Europe-based neobanks will add new users in the US at the same rate that domestic neobanks will in 2020.
3. One of the major consumer-focused neobanks will achieve profitability and spur investors to take a harder line with unprofitable neobanks.
4.2020 will be a breakthrough year for digital sales — mortgage lending will grow the fastest among digital sales categories and help push digital sales to new heights overall.
5. Smaller banks and credit unions will begin spending a percentage of their assets on technology that is equal to or greater than the percentage major banks are spending.
OUR TOP 5 CONNECTIVITY & TECH PREDICTIONS
1. We’ve hit peak smart speaker growth in the US — device sales to first-time owners will drop in 2020.
2. Amazon or Alphabet will partner with Dish to launch a wireless carrier service in the US after T-Mobile and Sprint merge.
3. The adoption of midtier phones will accelerate as smartphone manufacturers struggle with the challenges of bringing 5G technology to their premium lineups.
4. Global automakers will announce a wide range of 5G-connected models.
5. One of the US tech titans — Amazon, Microsoft, or Google — will spin out its cloud business to head off antitrust concerns from US regulators.
OUR TOP 5 DIGITAL HEALTH PREDICTIONS
1. Amazon will build on its blockbuster year in healthcare by rolling out its employee-facing virtual care platform — Amazon Care — to the US public.
2. Established digital therapeutics (DTx) players — namely Livongo, Omada, and Virta — will become active buyers of struggling greenhorns as pharma firms previously interested in the space withdraw from partnerships.
3. The digital health IPO floodgates will snap back shut — with fewer than five companies hitting the public market — as the threat of a recession looms and newly public digital health firms struggle.
4. 2020 will be the year US government officials are forced to address the cybersecurity crisis in healthcare — likely after an especially disruptive ransomware attack makes the problem too dangerous to ignore any longer.
5. EHR giants Epic and Cerner will turn to aggressive M&A to shore up against the threat of a potential Google offering.
OUR TOP 5 DIGITAL MEDIA PREDICTIONS
1. Spotify will grow to account for 25% of global podcast listening as it doubles down on discoverability and exclusive original content — and much of that share will come directly from Apple.
2. Video game developers will add commerce features that go beyond in-game purchases, following the lead of social platforms that have seen success with shopping integrations.
3. The 2020 US election will be a breaking point for social platform content moderation, leading US lawmakers to propose legislation that regulates the space in 2021.
4. In 2020, the streaming wars will be defined by promotion-fueled growth for new-to-market services, setting the stage for a service shakeout in 2021 as these offers expire.
5. Facebook’s attempts to win back younger users with Snapchat and TikTok copycat apps will fail by the end of 2020, and it will lose younger users in the US at an even faster rate.
OUR TOP 5 FINTECH PREDICTIONS
1. Libra won't launch in 2020, but China will launch a digital currency and push other jurisdictions to follow suit — here's why
2. South America's fintech funding will reach a historic high of $1 billion within a single quarter next year.
3. A handful of the most innovative incumbent insurers will lead the way on Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS).
4. E*Trade will be snapped up in 2020 — but not by Goldman Sachs.
5. In the aftermath of WeWork's failed IPO, Lemonade will have to contend with another year of staying private.
OUR TOP 5 PAYMENTS & COMMERCE PREDICTIONS
1. Amazon will expand POS financing across its site.
2. 2020 will not be the year contactless mainstreams in the US despite transit payments helping grow adoption.
3. We expect business-to-business (B2B) to become a large area of focus for noncard and real-time payments (RTP) innovation from card networks and other providers.
4. Autonomous checkout technology, like in Amazon Go stores, will fail to expand significantly in 2020 despite contrarian reports that suggest thousands of contactless stores are coming soon.
5. At least one major processor will delve further into issuing as the lines between those players converge.
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